“Make mistakes of ambition and not mistakes of sloth. Develop the strength to do bold things, not the strength to suffer”

The National Development Plan (NDP) for Ireland was renewed on the 5^th of October to mixed response. Some of the less complimentary commentary called it a work of fiction, full of false promises and linked it to the 19^th Century word of flapdoddle meaning stuff and nonsense (even though I think this was trending on Twitter due more to the Conservative Party Conference rather than the NDP) [1].

The opening quote is attributed to Niccolo Machiavelli. When dealing with political motivations Machiavelli is often quoted to reflect some of the less desirable characteristics of Politicians. Indeed, many politicians would be loath to be associated with a quote from such a source. But as the National Development Plan will not be delivered by the current set of politicians the quote is used to reflect the ambition of the plan which is laudable. No one individual, company, party or entity will bring the plan to its fruition. It is up to the Nation to deliver it and in that context, I welcome the ambition and challenge of the plan to help deliver a country that can prosper in a sustainable fashion with the correct infrastructure to underpin it. Several things are worth noting from the plan

1. Ambition

Firstly, the ambition is significant. Current public investment spending is tracking towards 5% of GNI and the total spend is forecast to be €165billion between 2021 and 2030. The graph below shows our spending relative to other European countries. This could also serve as a note of caution with the first peak coinciding with the Celtic Tiger growth and the second peak tying in with the financial crash. 

Figure 1 [2]

The spend is substantial when compared to other benchmarks. The legislation to create the Federal Highway system in America in 1957 amounted to 6% of GDP and the construction of 66,000km of roads [3]. The Irish plan is ambitious in present day money! The adjacent image shows you what 6% of GDP gives you. 

Figure 2 US Interstate Highway plan 1957 [4]

2. Government Impact

The Government have been lambasted from lack of detail and dates in the report. In the current environment where projects have been delayed an inordinate amount of time due to the overall process this is fair and sensible. But the Government are the gatekeepers of the Legislation to ensure that the projects can be delivered in Ireland. They have little defence in their performance in this regard. The Government has to deliver the framework to allow these projects to be built. A more robust means for delivering large projects in a timely fashion should be the top priority for the Government. Critical infrastructure should be vetted within a fixed timeline within the planning process This is required for housing and our climate change/renewable energy targets. 

3. Green Energy Targets

And that brings me to my final point on the NDP. It has rightly focused on housing, an intergenerational issue which is impacting young and old alike. For Years 1-5 approximately 50% of the budget, or €30 billion has been allocated to fix this issue [5]. Climate change and the provision of clean energy also has significant targets. The plan sets as strategic initiatives to have 8GW of onshore wind, 5 GW of offshore and 2.5 GW of solar by 2030. This would facilitate an increase of renewable electricity meeting 80% rather than 70% of demand and according to the WEI report “Endgame- A zero-carbon electricity plan for Ireland” where savings of €180m could be secured [6]. These are formidable challenges considering it has taken us 20 years to develop ~ 4GW of onshore wind. In the right environment these results can be achieved however, but we must act now. 

Figure 3 WEI Report Savings [6]

As the WEI Endgame report is not an end in on itself but a pathway to deliver a clean energy future the same can be said for the NDP. The NDP is just a plan and it is up to the people, not the politicians to deliver it. It is up to us to engage with the plan. It is up to us to direct and sculpt it. It is up to us to put our vision on it to create a world that we want for ourselves and our communities. The plan does not lack for ambition, it just needs a Nation to deliver it.  

References

[1]	“Twitter,” [Online]. Available: https://twitter.com/susie_dent/status/1444952531180957697. [Accessed 13 October 2021].
[2]	Department of Public Expenditure and Reform, “National Development Plan 2021-2030,” 2021.
[3]	Gzero Media, “What infrastructure spending means for you [Podcast],” 09 September 2021. [Online]. Available: https://www.gzeromedia.com/living-beyond-borders-podcasts/podcast-special-edition-what-infrastructure-spending-means-for-you. [Accessed 13 October 2021].
[4]	[Online]. Available: https://interactive.wttw.com/sites/default/files/Marvels_9-Hwy_Map-01_LOC.jpg. [Accessed 14 October 2021].
[5]	KPMG, “National Development Plan 2021-30,” [Online]. Available: https://home.kpmg/ie/en/home/insights/2021/10/national-development-plan-2021-2030-infrastructure-government.html. [Accessed 13 October 2021].
[6]	WEI, “Endgame- A zero-carbon electricity plan for Ireland,” https://windenergyireland.com/images/files/20210629-baringa-endgame-final-version.pdf, 2021.